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Estimates are that between 135,000 and 149,000 listings will expire in the first week of January. This creates an enormous opportunity for agents looking to build momentum at the beginning of 2025.
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In this article, David Childers of Keeping Current Matters shares the data agents need to understand and to be able to communicate to expired listing owners in order to take more listings.
The ability to provide factual data in a visual fashion that shows your expertise to prospective clients is invaluable, and the following slides have been produced by Keeping Current Matters in conjunction with data provided to them by REDX.
Historical data and anticipated numbers for expired, canceled or withdrawn listings
The biggest week for expired listings has historically been the first week of the year. As we prepare for the new year, it appears the number of expired listings forecast for the first week of 2025 will be the highest it has been in over a decade.
During the first week of 2024, there were 129,686 listings that either expired, were canceled or were withdrawn. The estimates provided by REDX are that there will be between 135,000 and 149,000 listings expiring, being canceled or withdrawn in the first week of January 2025.
To better understand this opportunity, the listings that expired the first week of 2024 represented $12 billion in sales volume. The forecasts from RedX are that the expired listings in the first week of 2025 will represent between $12.6 billion and $13.8 billion in sales volume. This creates an incredible window of opportunity in the coming weeks for agents.
Childers said, “After receiving this information from REDX, we began to break down what happened in 2024 that can inform our thinking of what we anticipate to be coming in 2025. All of this is to provide agents with the ability to sit down with expired listings and explain to them what happens and how to navigate their personal situation in a way that gets their home sold.”
How many of these expired listings relist?
Childers shared the chart below showing that over half of the homes (66,613 homes) that expired in the first week of 2024 have been relisted at some point during the year. Also, notice that 49 percent (63,073 homes) of the homes that expired during that week have not relisted.
Although this article is focused on the opportunity that is coming the first week of 2025, don’t miss the enormity of opportunity with the 63,073 homes that did not relist since expiring that week in 2024.
It has been nearly a year since those who did not relist had their homes come off the market. Researching those that expired that week and who did not relist or sell unveils a market where far fewer agents compete for listings than the recently expired listings.
A call to these owners stating you saw they had their home for sale a year ago and asking if they would still consider selling could be a fruitful activity in the coming weeks as well.
Who do expired listings relist with?
“Of the homes that relisted, roughly two-thirds (44,601 homes) relisted with the same agent, while roughly a third (22,012 homes) relisted with a new agent,” Childers shared.
The key to this is that if you are an agent with listings that are scheduled to expire, you have a high probability of relisting the home if you are proactive. Have a plan to relaunch the listing and get the extension signed as far in advance as possible.
Stats on who produced results
“The stats show that 58 percent (38,723 homes) of the homes that relisted sold, but 42 percent (27,890 homes) did not sell after relisting. The stat that is really interesting is that 71.2 percent of the homes that relisted with a different agent sold, while only 51.7 percent that relisted with the same agent sold,” Childers shared.
This is valuable information agents can utilize when they are in a listing presentation where the seller is considering relisting with the same agent. The stats clearly show that sellers that list with a new agent have a roughly 40 percent (71.2 percent versus 51.7 percent) higher success rate of getting their home sold.
What were the stats on relist prices?
“As seen on this chart (below), over 60 percent of homes were relisted at a lower price, just over 17 percent were listed at a higher price, and right at 20 percent were relisted at the same price. Nothing shocking here, but it does set the stage for data on the price where relisted homes actually sold,” Childers said.
What price did relisted homes sell for?
“This is where the data presents a clear message agents can share with prospective listings. Over 80 percent of homes that relisted and sold closed with a sales price lower than the expired list price. Over 14 percent sold for a higher price than the previous list price, and under 5 percent sold at the previous list price. Based on this information, the last thing you want to do is to keep the price the same,” Childers added.
Every home and every listing is different, but this data clearly shows that if a home expires and it relists with the intention to sell, there is an over 80 percent chance that it is going to sell for less than the previous list price.
This is data and information homeowners need to make the best decision for themselves and their family. The professional agent who can effectively communicate factual data positions themselves for increased success.
Knowledge may be power, but knowledge without action is useless. This is a unique opportunity to build momentum at the beginning of the coming year by taking expired listings.
Develop a plan of action. Be prepared with the data and a marketing strategy that will position you as the agent of choice for these expired listings. By doing so, you’ll set the stage for 2025 to be your best year in real estate.
Jimmy Burgess is a real estate agent and national team builder with Real Brokerage in northwest Florida, servicing the 30A, Destin, and Panama City Beach markets. Connect with him on Instagram and LinkedIn.
