Kentucky Derby storylines: Will Bob Baffert win in his return to Churchill Downs?


Two years ago, the topic at Churchill Downs was the sudden spike in horse deaths. Seven horses died in 10 days, and 12 died before racing was suspended at Churchill Downs and moved to Ellis Park. Based on the parameters of the arcane Equine Injury Database, where only racing deaths are counted, Churchill’s spring meet had 5.39 deaths for every 1,000 starts, as computed by The Times. The national average for all tracks in the survey was 1.32 for the year.

Incomplete as the EID results were, all Churchill Downs tracks refused to make their statistics public, and they were only lumped in as part of the overall numbers.

The Horseracing Integrity and Safety Authority vowed transparency and, after a squishy answer for the delay of 2023 results, released all racing and training deaths for 2024. Previously only California and New York were publicly releasing data. Based on last year’s reported results, in an unscientific melding of numbers by The Times based on racing and training deaths, Churchill Downs had a higher fatality rate than both Del Mar and Santa Anita, which had the lowest of the three. (Neither the Churchill Downs Training Center nor San Luis Rey Downs — owned by Santa Anita — were included in the calculations.)

So far (as of Saturday), one horse has died at Churchill Downs since training was allowed before the Derby. Valley of Fire, a 3-year-old gelding, broke both front legs during training and was euthanized on the track. Tappan Street, winner of the Florida Derby and considered a strong contender for the Kentucky Derby, on Saturday fractured his right front condylar and will miss the race. The injury is not considered life-threatening.

As for the reason for the deaths two years ago, HISA investigated and produced a 197-page report that was full of bells and whistles but short on any sort of answer. There was no singular reason.



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