- At press time, the crypto market still flashed ‘GREED,’ despite election worries
- Prediction sites favoured a Trump win, with Options traders eyeing $60k, $70k, and $80k targets
There is incredible market anxiety now that Election Day in the United States is here. However, despite Bitcoin’s [BTC] recent pullback from near its all-time high (ATH) to $68k, the Crypto Fear and Greed Index is still flashing “Greed.” At the time of writing, it had a reading of 70.
Source: Alternative.me
Bitcoin speculators remain positive
In fact, even Monday’s risk-off move across U.S Spot BTC ETFs didn’t deter BTC speculators. The products saw cumulative daily net outflows of $541 million, led by 21Shares (ARKB) and Bitwise’s BITB.
According to Spot On Chain, the Monday sell-off was the second-largest daily outflow for these products. This mirrored a broader market de-risking across U.S equities just before Election Day.
Source: Spot On Chain
Perhaps, Trump’s lead across prediction sites and top election models was partly responsible for the confidence seen in BTC and crypto markets.
Worth noting, however, that crypto trading firm QCP Capital cautioned that the market has been underpricing potential post-election risks or even Harris’s likely win.
Part of the firm’s election commentary read,
“The crypto market is currently pricing in a +/-3.5% in BTC spot movement on the election night itself. Yet, traders may be underpricing post-election risk: the current lack of volatility premium beyond the November 8 expiry suggests that markets expect a quick resolution, possibly underestimating potential delays or contested outcomes.”
The firm anticipated erratic BTC price swings when polling results stream in. For its part, Amberdata projected that the price swings could be $6k-$8k in either direction.
It added that a Harris win could push BTC to $60k, while a Trump win could trigger a new ATH for BTC ($75K/$77K).
That said, over the weekend, the Options market saw large funds favor bullish outcomes with upside targets of $70k —$85k.
The latest Deribit data revealed that off-shore markets eyed $72k —$75k targets based on massive call buying (upside expectation) from European and Asian markets on Monday. Part of its update read,
“Outsized T-1 Option flows jack IV higher. APAC-Euro flow: 1.5k Nov 72+75k Calls bought. At US open, as BTC peaked at 69.3k, Nov29 60k Put bought x1k funded by Nov29 80k Call, and Nov15 64k Put bought 1.5k.”
Also, the hike in interest in put options (downside bets), eyeing $60k, echoed Amberdata’s targets if Harris wins the election.
Additionally, it seems like whoever wins, Option traders expect BTC to stay above $60k. On the price charts, $65k will remain a key level to watch if the decline extends itself.
Source: BTCUSDT, TradingView
