Screen Actors Guild Awards nominations arrived this morning and, as one of the most accurate precursors of the awards season (the actors branch is the motion picture academy’s largest faction), you can bet that those nominated are hoping Oscar voters follow this script when filling out their ballots, which, coincidentally, they’ll begin doing today.
SAG voters rewarded the casts of the last three best picture winners — “Oppenheimer,” “Everything Everywhere All at Once” and “CODA. “ Three of the four actors winning individual honors in 2024 went on to prevail at the Oscars, with Emma Stone (“Poor Things”) preventing the clean sweep by besting SAG winner Lily Gladstone (“Killers of the Flower Moon”).
Who’s up and who’s down after Wednesday morning’s nominations? And what might it all mean for the Oscars, which will reveal its nominees on Jan. 17? Here’s a rundown.
UP: Demi Moore, “The Substance”
The accolades just keep coming for Moore. Days after winning her first Golden Globe, Moore scored her first individual SAG Awards nomination for her lead turn in “The Substance,” Coralie Fargeat’s blood-soaked fable about fear and self-loathing in Hollywood. When the movie opened in September, few pundits thought Moore could earn an Oscar nomination (yes, it would be another first) for a body-horror film. Now, not only does a nomination feel inevitable, there’s a growing belief that she might win. No one has campaigned with more pure joy this season, and the feeling has been mutual. Voters have been packing her Q&As, months after the movie opened.
UP: Pamela Anderson and Jamie Lee Curtis, “The Last Showgirl”
Everyone loves a comeback story, especially when it’s a tale of reinvention like what Pamela Anderson does playing an aging dancer in Gia Coppola’s poignant “The Last Showgirl.” And you probably know everyone loves Jamie Lee Curtis, particularly if you remember the love she received when she won the Oscar two years ago for “Everything Everywhere All at Once.” The movie wasn’t widely seen, but voters packed the screenings for it. And these women know how to work a room.
DOWN: Nicole Kidman, “Babygirl”
This year, as I’ve noted often, is loaded with exceptional lead actress contenders. Disappointment was inevitable, particularly since several of the performances, including Kidman’s fearless (and often quite funny) turn as a woman embarking on a journey of sexual self-discovery in “Babygirl,” have an edge that would appeal to the same voter. What can you do? Offer regrets and raise a glass of milk in her honor.
DOWN: Marianne Jean-Baptiste, “Hard Truths”
Jean-Baptiste swept the three major film critics groups — L.A., New York and the National Society — who had the good taste to recognize the excellence of her demanding turn in Mike Leigh’s piercing drama. The movie opens in theaters on Friday (finally!), but you’d figure that the acclaim would have ensured that each and every one of the 2,500 voting members on SAG’s nominating committee would have found time for it. But, let’s be real: She’s playing a difficult woman in a challenging movie and more than a few voters probably bailed 10 minutes in. To quote her character, Patsy: “People. Can’t stand them.”
UP: Jonathan Bailey, “Wicked”
We expected to see Cynthia Erivo and Ariana Grande included, but SAG Awards voters went the extra mile and nominated Bailey as well for his turn as the dashing prince who grows a conscience. Will the academy’s acting branch be as enthusiastic about this oh-so-popular movie? We’ll soon find out.
DOWN: “The Brutalist”
Days after winning Globes for best drama movie, director and lead actor Adrien Brody, Brady Corbet’s provocative portrait of an immigrant architect wrestling with the American Dream failed to secure an ensemble nod with SAG. Yes, Adrien Brody picked up an individual honor. But Felicity Jones and Guy Pearce weren’t nominated for their supporting roles. A cast nomination wasn’t in the cards because “The Brutalist” really isn’t an ensemble film. And I say that fully appreciating Joe Alwyn’s ability to convincingly play an entitled brat. If you’re a fan, don’t worry: There have been recent best picture winners that didn’t pick up a SAG ensemble nom, including “The Shape of Water,” “Nomadland” and “Green Book.”
UP: “A Complete Unknown”
Everyone loves Timothée Chalamet’s way of embracing the inscrutability of Bob Dylan in James Mangold’s musical biopic, so his nomination comes as no surprise. But Monica Barbaro picked up a nod too for her beautiful turn as Joan Baez. And the movie pulled down an ensemble nod, cementing its standing in the best picture race and maybe offering some hope that Chalamet can prevail over Brody for the lead actor Oscar, becoming the youngest winner ever in the category. He’s got one vote: Dylan’s.
DOWN: Margaret Qualley, “The Substance”
Moore and her comeback grabbed the headlines, but people aren’t coming around to appreciating her co-star’s committed turn as her younger half in “The Substance.” Qualley was convincing both when playing Sue’s initial vapidness as well as her growing, steely, self-defeating narcissism. Qualley and Moore have been great together at events. It’d be fitting if their journey as a duo culminated with a trip to the Oscars.
DOWN: Selena Gomez, “Emilia Pérez”
Gomez took some heat for her Spanish in the movie, but that felt like nitpicking in a film where absurdity often seemed like the guiding principle. Gomez nailed her showstopping song and acquitted herself as an actor, adding some interesting ambiguity to her role as a drug cartel boss’ wife. The uneven “Emilia Pérez” has its problems, but for me, Gomez was not one of them.
DOWN: Angelina Jolie, “Maria”
Jolie needed this. Aside from landing a Golden Globe nomination and a Gotham Awards tribute, it has been a quiet season for her, and this felt like the place to make a last stand. Critics haven’t been particularly kind to “Maria,” though their issues had more to do with the movie’s one-note exploration of legendary opera singer Maria Callas than with Jolie’s performance. She now has to hope that Oscar voters follow form and let their love for the biopic genre carry her to a nomination.
