- Trump’s election odds correlate with Bitcoin’s potential surge to $92,000 or higher
- 95.19% of Bitcoin holders are currently “in the money,” signaling strong market sentiment
With the United States’ Presidential Elections in less than two weeks, the race between the two leading candidates is intensifying with each passing day.
Prediction markets, including Polymarket and Kalshi, are all projecting Donald Trump to win. In fact, his projected support is now hovering at around 62.3%, while Kamala Harris is lagging at around at 38.3%.
Source: Polymarket
Kalshi’s most recent update further reinforced this trend, showing Trump at 59% and Harris at 41%.
Source: Kalshi
Bitwise execs put their money on Trump
On the back of Trump’s climbing odds, the head of Alpha Strategies at crypto asset manager Bitwise is forecasting a potential Bitcoin [BTC] surge. He is predicting the cryptocurrency could soar to as high as $92,000, should Trump secure victory in November.
In a recent X post, Jeff Park noted,
“Charting $BTC price against Trump’s odds (via @Polymarket) from 8/15 to 10/20 reveals some wild swings—particularly when Harris and Trump took turns leading. By applying merger arb-style probability math, I project a Trump victory could push BTC to ~$92,000. Take that as you will.”
Source: Jeff Park/X
Additionally, Bitcoin millionaire Erik Finman believes that a Trump victory could propel BTC’s price to $100,000.
He said,
“His policies will ignite the crypto market, fueling massive growth across the board.”
CoinShares reports and other investors believe the same
A recent CoinShares report also revealed a significant surge in digital asset inflows, amounting to $407 million. This has been driven by greater investor interest tied to a potential Republican win.
This influx is a sign of growing confidence in the possibility of favorable regulatory changes under a GOP-led administration.
Additionally, Alex Thorn, Head of Firmwide Research at Galaxy Digital, introduced a policy scorecard comparing the cryptocurrency positions of the presidential candidates. In doing so, he shed light on how each candidate’s approach could affect the industry’s future.
This was further confirmed by BTC’s price action, which had been struggling to break past the $60k barrier for some time. However, soon after, it surged past $65k – A surge that coincided with Trump’s rising electoral odds.
Is Elon Musk behind this?
Interestingly, Elon Musk’s influence seems to have played a role in propelling Trump’s campaign momentum too.
For those unaware, Musk attended a rally for the Republican nominee in Butler, Pennsylvania. Here, he made a bold statement of support by wearing a ‘Make America Great Again’ cap and referring to himself as ‘Dark MAGA,’ further cementing his backing of the candidate.
What lies ahead for BTC?
Bitcoin has been somewhat bullish lately on the back of Trump’s strong lead in the prediction markets and across exit polls. At the time of writing, for instance, the crypto was valued at just under $67,500.
Supporting this bullish trend, data from IntoTheBlock analyzed by AMBCrypto revealed that an overwhelming 95.19% of BTC holders are currently “in the money.” This means that their Bitcoin holdings are worth more than their initial purchase price.
On the contrary, 0% of holders are “out of the money” – A sign of strong market sentiment, hinting at the possibility of further price hikes for Bitcoin.
Source: IntoTheBlock
