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USD / CAD – Canadian Dollar focus shifts to US inflation numbers


– Loonie unable to keep gains following Friday’s jobs data.

– Markets awaiting US PPI and CPI data this week.

– US dollar opens little changed from Friday.

USDCAD: open 1.3681, overnight range 1.3668-1.3690, close 1.3673, WTI $78.42, Gold, $2340.10.

The Canadian dollar rallied and sank on Friday and then spent the overnight session licking its wounds. The rest of the G-10 major currencies were quiet inside narrow ranges ahead of key US inflation reports this week.

On Friday, USDCAD plunged from 1.3684 to 1.3634 in the wake of a huge jump in the number of new jobs created in Canada. Statistics Canada reported a gain of 90,400 jobs in April, which easily beat the 18,000 gain expected. The unemployment rate was unchanged at 6.1%. Unfortunately, the number of new jobs was not keeping pace with population growth from immigration.

That’s not the worst of it either. Canada created 398,000 jobs in the past 12 months, but 208,000 were in the public sector. Public sector jobs are not known for boosting domestic economic growth as more and more taxes from the private sector are diverted to government payrolls, reducing the amount of money available for investment in other areas, like healthcare, education, or infrastructure, to name a few.

USDCAD rallied to 1.3693 as quickly as it had dropped to 1.3634 but the gains were capped by speculation that the employment data may delay the expected June rate cut.

Asian and European equity markets trade in narrow ranges. S&P 500 futures are flat, and WTI oil prices are at the top of its $77.78-$78.92 overnight range.

EURUSD drifted in a 1.0766-1.0789 band. The focus is on Tuesday’s US PPI report and then Wednesday’s CPI data.

GBPUSD churned inside a tight 1.2517-1.2536 band. Gains are limited due to the dovish outlook for UK rates. In addition, traders were cautious ahead of Tuesday’s employment data.

USDJPY was steady in a 155.52-155.96 range. The ongoing fear of BoJ intervention and softer US Treasury yields are capping gains.

AUDUSD traded firm and is at the top of its 0.6585-0.6622 overnight range. NAB Business Conditions and Business Confidence data failed to inspire traders. The Business Conditions Index dropped from 9 to 7 in April while Business Confidence was unchanged at 1.

There are no US or Canadian economic reports of note today.



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