The latest report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics indicates nonfarm payrolls increased by 177,000 for the month, seasonally adjusted, above the Dow Jones estimate for 133,000. The unemployment rate stayed at 4.2%, as expected. The report notes that health care added 51,000 jobs, and transportation and warehousing, financial activities, and social assistance also trended upward, but federal government employment declined.
Employment in February and March was revised 58,000 lower than originally reported.
“Today’s report is a welcome surprise, showing a resilient labor market where employers continue to grow their workforce despite prevailing economic uncertainties,” Ger Doyle, U.S. Country Manager at ManpowerGroup, told Entrepreneur. “However, there are still cracks in the foundation that highlight signs of strain in the labor market.”
Doyle said that his company’s real-time data shows job openings down 11% year-over-year, but the labor market is not in crisis—it’s at a crossroads.
For example, Doyle says that employers are “no longer aggressively expanding” their workforce numbers, and fewer workers are leaving their jobs, while “those who do are finding it challenging to re-enter the job market.”
Will the Fed cut rates?
Elyse Ausenbaugh, head of investment strategy at JPMorgan Wealth Management, told Entrepreneur in an email that the “broad labor market remained on solid footing,” while noting that April may be “the last month when we didn’t see the aggregate impact of trade war 2.0, DOGE job cuts, and tight immigration policy.”
Ausenbaugh says the latest report is unlikely “to elicit a move from the Fed next week,” meaning a rate cut is not expected at the next meeting.
The Fed will continue its “patient, data-dependent approach,” Ausenbaugh says.
The next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is May 6-7.