Each halving cycle once promised monumental gains. The first delivered a staggering 6,400% return. The second halving saw that number cut in half.
The third? A respectable but far more muted 1,200%.
And the current cycle, so far, has barely scraped past 100% — even as Bitcoin hit new all-time highs.
Source: IntoTheBlock
The math is clear: Bitcoin’s post-halving rallies are tapering off. But the implications go deeper.
This pattern suggests the market no longer reacts to halving supply shocks with the same blind euphoria.
With institutional players in the mix and macro headwinds swirling, Bitcoin is behaving less like a wild speculative asset and more like a maturing, macro-sensitive instrument.
In other words, the halving might still set the stage — reducing issuance and tightening supply — but it’s no longer the main act.
Today, Bitcoin’s price is increasingly tied to liquidity cycles, interest rate expectations, and broader economic signals.
If that sounds like Bitcoin is slowly being absorbed into the traditional financial system, it’s because it is. The shrinking returns may not signal weakness — but rather a shift in narrative.